[institutional point of view] Analysis of the annual situation of strategic advantage metal industry

Abstract: in 2020, the tungsten price shows a W-shaped trend, the antimony price shows a V-shaped trend, and the rare earth price shows a fluctuating upward trend. It is estimated that in 2021, the average price of tungsten concentrate is 90,000 yuan / standard ton, the average price of APT is 140000 yuan / ton, the average price of antimony ingot is 45000 yuan / ton, the average price of antimony oxide is 40 thousand yuan / ton, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 450000 yuan / ton, the average price of dysprosium oxide is 2.1 million yuan / ton, and that of terbium oxide is 8 million yuan / ton. The metal price of strategic advantage for the whole year is likely to show a trend of high before and then low.

1. Tungsten

(1) Review of price trends in 2020

In 2020, the overall tungsten price showed a W-shaped trend (figure 1): from January to February, the tungsten price remained firm due to the reduction of supply and the interruption of logistics, the APT price was maintained at about 140000 yuan / ton, and the wolframite concentrate price was maintained at about 90, 000 yuan / standard ton. In March, due to the decrease in demand, the APT price fell to 116500 yuan / ton, and the wolframite concentrate price fell to the annual lowest point of 74500 yuan / standard ton. In early September, APT prices rebounded to 131000 yuan / ton, wolframite concentrate prices rebounded to 88000 yuan / standard ton after a pullback; in early November, APT prices fell to 124500 yuan / ton, wolframite concentrate prices fell to 82500 yuan / standard ton; at the end of the year, APT prices rebounded to 132000 yuan / ton, wolframite concentrate prices rebounded to 88000 yuan / standard ton, but failed to return to the level at the beginning of the year. For the whole year, the price of APT is maintained between 12-130000 yuan / ton for most of the time, and the price of wolframite concentrate is basically maintained between 80-90 thousand yuan / standard ton. At the beginning of 2020, it was predicted that the annual APT price is 11-140000 yuan / ton and the tungsten concentrate price is 70-90 thousand yuan / ton. The actual price is basically in line with the forecast.

(II) Review of imports and exports in 2020

In 2020, under the influence of weak foreign demand, the export volume of China's main tungsten products decreased sharply, of which the exports of ammonium paratungstate, blue tungsten, yellow tungsten, tungsten carbide and ferrotungsten have dropped sharply for two consecutive years (figure 2). For the whole year, the exports of ammonium paratungstate, blue tungsten, yellow tungsten, tungsten carbide, ammonium metatungstate, tungsten powder and ferrotungsten decreased by 66.34%, 57.16%, 32.03%, 27.99%, 28.21%, 10.65% and 27.24%, respectively. In the whole year, the total import of tungsten concentrate was about 3172 tons, an increase of about 11.5% over the same period last year.

(3) Top Ten News of Tungsten Industry in 2020

1. On March 17, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that with effect from March 20, the export tax rebate rate of tungsten wire would be increased from 10% to 13%.

2. On May 21, Jiang Tungsten holding Group held a strategic cooperation meeting with Xiamen Tungsten Industry to conduct exchanges and negotiations on the joint development of Dawutang-Dahutang Tungsten Mine, Shanghu rare Earth Mine Cooperation, Jiang Tungsten and Cobalt Industry Cooperation and Intelligent Concentrator Cooperation.

3. On July 15, the total amount control index of tungsten mining in 2020 was issued, and the national total amount control index of tungsten concentrate (65% tungsten trioxide) was 105000 tons, which was the same as that of the previous year.

4. On August 20, the initial application of Zhuzhou Oukeyi CNC Precision cutting tool Co., Ltd. was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

5. On August 23, China Tungsten Hi-Tech announced that it planned to acquire 84.9667% of Nanchang cemented Carbide Co., Ltd. held by Minmetals Tungsten Industry Group Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the actual controller, with a transaction price of about 285 million yuan.

6. On September 2, Australia's Golden Island Scheelite Co., Ltd. announced a three-year underwriting agreement with Kalon Resources Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Noble Group, to supply 1500 standard tons of 60-degree tungsten concentrate per year.

7. On October 16, the initial application of Zhuzhou Huarui Precision tools Co., Ltd. was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

8. On October 26, (MHT), a subsidiary of Mashan Group of Vietnam, announced that it had signed a strategic alliance agreement for tungsten industry with Japan's Mitsubishi Comprehensive Materials Co., Ltd. (MMC).

9. On November 11, Jiangxi Copper and (Hong Kong) Hengzhao International Co., Ltd. invested in the early project of the large-scale open-pit tungsten mine in Bakuta, Kazakhstan, held a launching ceremony.

10. On 22 December, the Canadian Almonti Industries Valtreixal open-pit tungsten and tin mine project in Spain was opposed by Spanish and Portuguese environmentalists.

(4) Prospect of tungsten market in 2021

On the supply side, the 28300 tons of pan-Asian APT inventory obtained by Luoyang Molybdenum Industry through judicial auction in September 2019 should not have been disposed of and will continue to be digested in 2021, with a unit price of 115300 yuan / ton, which will put pressure on the tungsten city.

On the demand side, the growth of domestic cemented carbide production is limited, and the export of tungsten products may improve.

Overall, the relationship between supply and demand is slightly better than in 2020. It is estimated that the price range of 55 degree wolframite concentrate in the whole year is 8-100000 yuan / standard ton, with an average price of 90, 000 yuan / standard ton; the national standard zero-grade APT price range is 13-150000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 140000 yuan / ton. (the price forecast only represents the author's personal point of view)

Antimony

(1) Review of price trends in 2020

In 2020, the antimony price shows a V-shaped trend (figure 3), which is basically in line with the forecast at the beginning of the year. From January to February, due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic on the supply side, the price of antimony ingots rose to the highest of 42500 yuan / ton for the whole year; in March, the price of antimony began to fall, and at the end of April it fell to the lowest of the year; from May to July, the price of antimony has been dormant at the bottom; in early August, the price of antimony began to rebound and basically returned to the highest level of the year at the end of the year, with the price of antimony ingots at 42500 yuan / ton and antimony oxide at 38500 yuan / ton. At the beginning of 2020, it is predicted that the annual average price of antimony ingots is 41000 yuan / ton, the annual average price of antimony oxide is 37000 yuan / ton, the actual average price of antimony ingots is about 39000 yuan / ton, and the average price of antimony oxide is about 36000 yuan / ton, which is lower than the forecast.

(II) Review of imports and exports in 2020

From January to November, China imported 42074 tons of antimony concentrate, down 26.1 per cent from the same period last year: of this total, imports from Myanmar, Tajikistan and Russia decreased by 90.5 per cent, 28.4 per cent and 38.4 per cent respectively, but imports from Australia rose 85.6 per cent against the trend.

From January to November, China exported 33774 tons of antimony oxide, down 11.3 percent from the same period last year. Among the major export markets, exports to the United States fell by 15.7 per cent, to India by 16.5 per cent, to Japan by 28.7 per cent, to the European Union by 58.7 per cent, to ASEAN by 5 per cent and to South Korea by 7.2 per cent.

From January to November, China exported 7727 tons of antimony ingots, down 32.5 percent from the same period last year: exports to Japan increased by 5.6 percent, exports to South Korea decreased by 43.3 percent, exports to the Netherlands dropped by 79.1 percent, and exports to Belgium decreased by 9 percent.

(3) Ten important news of antimony industry in 2020

1. On March 12, a meeting on the key work planning of the antimony industry in 2020 was held, and seven key tasks of the antimony industry in 2020 were put forward.

2. On March 24, the tailing zero discharge system of the south mine of Hunan Xianxing Antimony Industry broke through many technical bottlenecks and operated continuously and stably for one month, with a daily handling capacity of 400 tons, marking the formal establishment of the first tailless mine in the domestic antimony industry.

3. On June 15, Tajikistan Aluminum Group announced that the commissioning time of the Kangqiaoqi antimony gold project would be postponed to October.

4. From September 3 to 4, the annual meeting of China Antimony Industry in 2020 and the second third Council of Antimony Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association were held in Changde, Hunan Province.

5. On October 26, the first domestic production line of "bottom blowing + side blowing + fuming" of brittle lead antimony ore was put into operation in Guangxi Hechi Shengfu smelting Co., Ltd.

6. On November 1, three shareholders of the Oman Antimony Gold project reached a settlement agreement, and the British Samsung Resources Company announced that it would delist from the second board of the London Stock Exchange after the reduction of its stake in the project company.

7. On November 11, Canada's Mandalay Resources Co., Ltd. announced that antimony metal production in the first three quarters was 3045 tons, an increase of 125.89% over the same period last year. Antimony metal production for the whole year is expected to increase from 3000-3500 tons to 4000-4300 tons.

8. On December 22, Canada's Midas Gold (Midas Gold) released an independent feasibility study on the Stibnite gold and antimony project in Idaho, which may become the only antimony producer in the United States.

9. On December 24, the Xikuang Antimony Mine Heritage, which is under the jurisdiction of Minmetals rare Earth Tin Mine Flash Star Antimony Industry Co., Ltd., was successfully selected into the fourth batch of national industrial heritage list, becoming the first project in the country to be successfully selected as antimony ore heritage on the national industrial heritage list.

10. December 29, nine antimony smelting enterprises in Xikuang area of Lengshuijiang City, Hunan Province, including Flash Antimony Industry, Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, Zirong Antimony Industry, Glorious Antimony Industry, Yanshan Antimony Industry, Sen Lei Antimony Industry, Xiangfeng Antimony Industry, Sanjiu Antimony Industry, Xinghua Nonferrous and other antimony smelting enterprises jointly signed a contract to establish Hunan Xikuang Antimony products Trading Co., Ltd.

(IV) Prospect of antimony market in 2021

On the supply side, after 2019 and 2020, the stock of 18660 tons of antimony ingots sold by judicial auction has been basically digested; Huayu Mining's Kangqiaoqi Antimony Mine in Tajikistan will be put into production this year, with an annual production capacity of 16000 tons of antimony metal, but there is uncertainty about the current production time and actual production.

On the demand side, the new EU regulation banning the use of halogenated flame retardants in electronic display housings and brackets will be formally implemented on March 1, 2021, and its negative impact on the amount of antimony oxide remains to be seen.

On the whole, the relationship between supply and demand in the antimony market in 2021 will be better than that in 2020. It is estimated that the annual price range of antimony ingots is 40, 000 yuan / ton, the annual average price is 45000 yuan / ton, the price range of antimony oxide is 3. 5-45000 yuan / ton, and the annual average price is 40, 000 yuan / ton. (the price forecast only represents the author's personal point of view)

III. Rare earths

(1) Review of price trends in 2020

In 2020, the price of rare earths is generally strong. The listing price of terbium oxide in Southern rare Earth Group has been rising all the way, rising from 3.9 million yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 6.45 million yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of more than 65%. The listing price of dysprosium oxide is stable, basically fluctuating in a narrow range between 180 yuan / ton and 2 million yuan / ton (figure 4). At the beginning of 2020, the predicted price range of terbium oxide is 320-4 million yuan / ton, and the actual price range is 375-6.45 million yuan / ton, which is much higher than the forecast; the predicted price range of dysprosium oxide is 160-1.9 million yuan / ton, and the actual price range is 180-1.97 million yuan / ton, which is basically in line with the forecast.

The listing price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in northern China rose from 320000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 428000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of about 34%. At the beginning of 2020, it is predicted that the price range of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 25-300000 yuan / ton, and the actual price range is 28-420000 yuan / ton.

(II) Review of imports and exports in 2020

In 2020, China exported 35448 tons of rare earths, down 23.5 percent from 46330 tons last year; rare earth exports totaled US $343.9 million, down 21.9 percent from US $440.23 million last year.

In 2020, China imported 71803 tons of rare earth metal minerals, an increase of 53.8 percent over the same period last year, of which 71408 tons were imported from the United States, up 54.7 percent over the same period last year. Imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were 19409 tons, up 12.5 percent over the same period last year, of which 17512 tons were imported from Myanmar, up 21.4 percent over the same period last year. Imports of mixed rare earth carbonates were 8714 tons, down 44.3 percent from the same period last year, of which imports from Myanmar were 6225 tons, down 52.4 percent from the same period last year. The raw materials imported in the whole year are equivalent to about 60,000 tons of rare earth oxides (Table 1).

(3) Top Ten important News of rare Earth Industry in 2020

1. On March 6, Guangxi Development and Reform Commission approved the construction project of rare earth mine in the south section of Huashan rare earth mining area in Fuchuan, Guangxi Zhong shan- Guangxi rare Earth Development Co., Ltd.

2. On April 22, Linus of Australia and MP Materials of the United States respectively won the contract for the first phase of the construction of the heavy rare earth separation plant of the US Department of Defense.

3. On May 11, the signing ceremony of capital increase and share expansion of Ganzhou rare Earth Group Co., Ltd. was held, and the total share capital increased from 1.61329 billion yuan to 10.37344 billion yuan.

4. On June 3, Hastings Technology Metals Co., Ltd. of Australia announced the signing of a 10-year mixed rare earth carbonate underwriting agreement with the German Schaeffler Group.

5. On July 15, the total control index of rare earth mining was issued, and the national total control index of rare earth mining was 140000 tons, of which the index of rock type rare earth mines increased by 8000 tons over the previous year, and the index of ionic rare earth mines was the same as that of the previous year.

6. On September 1, the Resource tax Law of the people's Republic of China implemented, the tax rate on medium and heavy rare earths was reduced from 27% to 20%, and the tax rate on light rare earths was 7-12%.

7. From September 6 to 15, the fourth Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision team of the Central Committee conducted on-site inspections of Guangxi Nonferrous rare Earth Development Co., Ltd. and its subordinate enterprises of Chinalco. It was found that the subordinate enterprises of the company did not rectify the problems of central ecological environmental protection supervision; environmental management was chaotic and illegal activities occurred frequently; excessive cross-border mining of rare earths caused pollution to the surrounding environment.

8. On November 17, in order to strengthen the domestic rare earth supply chain, the US Department of Defense announced that it had signed government funding agreements with three US rare earth producers under Chapter III of the Defense production Act.

9. On November 17, MP Materials, a developer of the Mount pass rare earth mine, listed backdoor on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first American rare earth company to go public in nearly a decade.

10. Minmetals rare Earth Group Hunan Jianghua Mine Project has been completed and put into production, and the relevant construction progress, investment control, production and operation indicators are better than or exceed the planned targets, achieving completion in the current year, reaching production in the same year and making profits in the same year.

(IV) Prospect of rare Earth Market in 2021

In terms of supply and demand, the rare earth market in 2021 mainly depends on the output of NdFeB magnetic materials, the rare earth mining targets issued by the state and the number of imported mines. It is estimated that the price range of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in 2021 is 40-500000 yuan / ton, the average price of the whole year is 450000 yuan / ton, the average price of dysprosium oxide is 2.3 million yuan / ton, the average price of terbium oxide is 2.1 million yuan / ton, and the average price of terbium oxide is 8 million yuan / ton. The rise in the price of raw materials upstream will eventually be subject to the affordability of users in the downstream industry. (the price forecast only represents the author's personal point of view)